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The National Commission for Strategy and Forecasting (CNSP) has revised upwards by two points to 7% the estimate for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product in 2021, to 1,174.9 billion lei, according to the institution’s summer forecast.
The CNSP had estimated, in its Medium-term Forecast 2020 – 2024 – Spring 2021 version, an increase in Gross Domestic Product for this year of 5%, to 1,142.9 billion lei.
In the summer forecast, the CNSP estimates GDP growth of 4.9% for 2022, 5.3% for 2023 and 5.0% for 2024.
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It also forecasts a current account deficit of 5.5% of GDP in 2021, 5.0% in 2022, 4.7% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024.
According to the summer forecast, the year-end consumer price index (CPI) will stand at 5.0% in 2021 and average annual inflation is estimated at 4.2% this year. Average annual inflation is expected to fall to 3.5% in 2022, 3.0% in 2023 and 2.6% in 2024.
According to the source, the trade deficit is expected to rise this year to 8.0% of GDP, to 7.6% next year, to 7.1% in 2023 and to 6.3% in 2024.
The CNPS maintains its estimate of a depreciation of the national currency against the euro. Thus, the average lei/euro exchange rate will be 4.92 this year, 4.98 next year, 5.03 lei to the euro in 2023 and 5.08 lei to the euro in 2024.